6G Risks Fracturing Into Competing Standards as AI and Interoperability Fall Behind
The race to define sixth-generation wireless is entering a decisive phase, yet unresolved questions about AI integration and cross-vendor compatibility threaten to split the global telecom industry just as 3G once did.
The global telecom industry stands at a defining crossroads. As 6G standardisation enters its earliest formal study phases, experts warn that the window to lock in a unified, interoperable framework is narrowing fast, and the cost of getting it wrong could echo for a decade.
Unlike any previous network generation, 6G must solve not just radio physics but the far thornier challenge of embedding artificial intelligence natively into network architecture. Without a coherent standards roadmap, the industry risks repeating the fragmentation that plagued 3G, this time at far greater scale and stakes.
Why Standards Matter Right Now
The 6th-generation wireless technology, 6G, is imminent and inevitable. Major standardisation bodies, including 3GPP, ITU, IEEE, ETSI, and the O-RAN Alliance, are already laying the groundwork, with a rough calendar target of 2030 and specifications solidifying across 3GPP Releases 19 through 21.
Thomas van Briel, Chief Network Architect at Group Technology of Deutsche Telekom, lays out the stakes plainly. “Standardisation is helping to provide global scale to any mobile communications system,” he says. “3GPP, IETF, TM Forum, O-RAN Alliance, and other standardisation bodies are already working under the ITU 2030 horizon to prepare the 6G standards.”
3GPP Release 20 now defines the scope of the official technical study projects that will build the foundation for 6G Work Items expected in Release 21. That work began and the standards body expects to complete Release 20 by June 2027.
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The Timeline Is Already Tight
Technical studies that kick-start the 6G standardisation process only got underway in August and September 2025. Andrew Kitson, Director of Technology at BMI, points out that it will take more than a year of peer analysis by major tech vendors before the main standards bodies can decide on key issues such as spectrum requirements, air interface protocols, and handover compatibility with 4G, 5G, Wi-Fi, Zigbee, and Bluetooth.
BMI does not expect the 6G standard to reach its final form before late 2027 or early 2028. Kitson adds a sobering historical note: “As was the case with 3G, several different 6G standards may well emerge.” He also cautions that geopolitical tensions mean any contributions from mainland Chinese technology companies will face exceptionally fine scrutiny, adding another layer of complexity to an already intricate process.
“Generational standards have always tended to be overhyped and under-deliver.” Andrew Kitson, Director of Technology, BMI
What 5G Got Wrong That 6G Must Fix
The industry does not start from scratch. 5G offers a rear-view mirror of lessons, many of them uncomfortable. Industry stakeholders have flagged persistent gaps in 5G specifications, including rigidity, integration and interoperability struggles, roaming-related friction, multi-vendor compatibility failures, and a chronic problem of siloed deployments. Too many prescriptions for architecture, rather than maintaining focus on functional requirements, made 5G standards clunky and slowed real-world deployments.
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The O-RAN Question
A survey within the next Generation Research Group, a task force inside the O-RAN Alliance, reveals that 86 percent of respondents expect a mix of O-RAN components alongside 3GPP and legacy deployments. Only 14 percent believe the 6G mobile network will rest on 3GPP alone.
The study explains how 3GPP and O-RAN coexistence can work: 3GPP standardises the 6G network core, while O-RAN complements it with additional standardisation. The result is that 6G networks will almost certainly include O-RAN components running alongside 3GPP deployments, not in competition with them.
AI as the Native Language of 6G
Van Briel argues that AI integration is not an optional feature add-on but a core architectural requirement. “To enable native and large-scale adoption of AI within 6G, a coherent set of standards is required, particularly for interfaces, data models, and data translation,” he explains. “Such standardisation is critical to ensuring that AI can be seamlessly integrated, interoperable across vendors and domains, and effectively leveraged for intelligent, autonomous, and adaptive 6G network operations.”
Pinkesh Kotecha, MD and Chairman of Ishan Technologies, reinforces that message while adding a crucial layer: unlike 5G, where AI largely serves network optimisation and operations, 6G is expected to embed AI far more deeply into network design itself, shaping how radio resources are allocated, how networks self-optimise, and how services orchestrate end-to-end.
India Has the Most to Win, and Lose
India enters this standards race with an explicitly ambitious posture. The Bharat 6G Mission envisions the sector contributing nearly USD 1.2 trillion to national GDP by 2035, and the country is targeting a 10 percent share of global 6G patents. On October 10, 2025, India released a joint declaration on 6G Principles to signal its intent to shape, not merely adopt, the global framework.
Standardisation as a Sovereignty Issue
Kotecha frames standardisation as a question of national technological sovereignty. “For 6G, standardisation will play a big role in deciding whether India builds long-term capability or continues to rely on imported technologies,” he says. Equally important, he adds, is alignment between spectrum policy, standards, and local engineering capacity. Without it, 6G networks risk fragmentation and difficulty scaling beyond dense urban centres, a fatal flaw in a country where affordability and nationwide reach matter as much as peak performance.
Kotecha describes India’s goal as actively shaping global standards so that future networks remain interoperable across vendors, secure by design, and economically scalable. “The goal is not to create parallel or localised standards, but to influence global frameworks while building domestic R&D depth, developing home-grown intellectual property, and preparing the ecosystem for large-scale deployment.”
“Getting standardisation right at this stage will ultimately determine how open, interoperable, and future-ready India’s 6G networks are.” Pinkesh Kotecha, MD and Chairman, Ishan Technologies
The Countdown to 2030
Sanjay Sehgal, CEO and MD of TP-Link India, stresses urgency. With the world accelerating toward smart connectivity, IoT, and AI/ML-based controls, 6G standardisation needs to move faster. “Since the total roll-out will take time, about standardisation, with 3GPP and various governments having their concerns, and the fact that the software and hardware will need to be refreshed, all said, this will lead to more innovation in the field of IT and telecom,” he says.
The road to 2030 runs through difficult terrain: geopolitical rivalry, competing architectural philosophies, unresolved AI integration frameworks, and legacy interoperability demands. But the consensus across experts is clear. The industry that solves these coordination problems first earns the 6G era on its own terms. The industry that does not risks another decade of expensive fragmentation.
AEO — Questions and Answers
What are the main risks facing 6G standardisation right now?
The biggest risk is fragmentation. If standards bodies, technology vendors, and governments fail to align on a single framework, 6G could splinter into competing regional standards, much like 3G once did. Unresolved issues around AI integration, spectrum allocation, and cross-vendor interoperability are the fault lines most likely to crack first.
When will the 6G standard be finalised?
BMI does not expect the 6G standard to reach final form before late 2027 or early 2028. Technical studies only began in August and September 2025, and 3GPP Release 20, which builds the foundation for 6G Work Items, is expected to be complete by June 2027. Commercial deployment targets remain set at around 2030.
How will AI be different in 6G compared to 5G?
In 5G, AI mainly handles network optimisation after deployment. In 6G, AI embeds directly into network design itself. It shapes how radio resources are allocated, how networks self-optimise in real time, and how services orchestrate end-to-end. That deeper integration is why 6G requires dedicated AI standards for interfaces and data models, not just best-practice guidelines.
What is India targeting with its Bharat 6G Mission?
India wants to contribute nearly USD 1.2 trillion to national GDP by 2035 through 6G, and it is targeting a 10 percent share of global 6G patents. Rather than adopting standards built elsewhere, the Bharat 6G Mission aims to actively shape global frameworks, build domestic research and development depth, and develop home-grown intellectual property at scale.
